My Predictions & Thoughts on Obama's Presidency

Greetings everyone once again. Firstly I'd like to apologize for not having posted sooner, I've been experiencing some technical difficulties with my computer over the past few days and I won't quite return to normal posting behaviour for a few more days if not a few weeks unfortunately. As I always say, technology is great...when it works! Also I'd like to generally say that in order to maintain the professionalism of this blog, I'd appreciate it if anyone that does read my posts report any errors - be they grammatical or factual - to me so that I can correct and/or revise my findings.

Alright, onto the issue at hand. Unless you're in a coma, you will easily be able to recognize the biggest headline in the news now that the Gazan conflict has subsided; CNN has even initiated a countdown to the event, which in itself will cost $160 million [in a time of economic crisis!] and it is being hailed as an historic event the world over.....enough hints, does anyone know what I'm talking about? There is only one possibility, the upcoming Obama Presidency which is set to officially start tomorrow, the 20th of January 2009. It is simply not possible to get by a single day without hearing endless streams of media adulation, praise and in many cases worship of this messianic figure. The impressionable catchwords of Obama's campaign, "Hope" along with a faith and belief in "Change" have grown far beyond their original meaning, they have crossed that fine line between a genuine faith and belief in something and an absurd superstition. What is most disparaging of all however is just how willing my cohort, this generation of young adults are willing to embrace Obama. Given our lack of political experience and an understanding of political history it makes us an extremely vulnerable and impressionable demographic target to manipulation via clever emotion-centric [as opposed to rational] ad campaigns, empty rhetoric along with a throng of vague and idealistic promises many of which Obama has already admitted he will not be able to fulfill. To his credit, at least he has the temerity to be honest. As a form of comedic relief, I thought that I would provide a small clip that covered the aftermath of Obama's election back in November. It is available here. I thought it was very well done with intelligent humour and a meaningful critique of the naive obsession youth seem to have regarding Obama's presidency. In the following few paragraphs, I suppose that I will simply say what I think the future holds for this "historic presidency."

The Campaign

Before I even get into analyzing the potential of Obama's presidency, I just want to have a quick word on the campaign that was run and the manner in which it was represented by the media. It's actually quite ironic in a sad way that Canadians seemed to care more about the results of the American election than they did of their own election which had occurred only a month or so before the Americans went to vote. This is an excellent example of just how pervasive the media coverage was of the US elections; however it is important to say that despite the incessant media attention upon the candidates I highly doubt that anyone in their right mind could say that the coverage was objective, fair and unbiased. Personally, I did not agree with either of the candidates and believe that the American people were simply put into yet another submissive situation whereby they had to choose the perceived lesser of two evils, hence, I do not have a personal axe to grind against Obama OR McCain, simply a valid critique of media representation. The lack of viable presidential candidates is an aspect of the American electoral "democratic" system that I am harshly critical of in general; often times I will make the joke that the only difference between a single-party dictatorship like Saddam Hussein's and America "Democracy" is that one state has a single party, the other has two. It's funny if you're in politics....Continuing with what I was saying before getting sidetracked, the media coverage was VERY biased and disproportionately critical of the McCain campaign ranging from criticizing and erroneously characterizing McCain's supporters as being the typical Southern redneck KKK card-carrying member afraid of having a black president all the way to shamelessly focusing on Palin's wardrobe expenses. Whenever the slightest controversy was aroused over Obama's questionable policies or historical contacts by the opposing side, instead of critiquing Obama further, the media decided to hound down McCain's campaign to the point where it almost seemed as if the media itself had a mission against that candidate. I think this is one point that cannot be denied; the US media was completely devoid and bereft of any form of viable criticism of Obama's campaign and seemed to have an agenda against McCain.

There is one other point that I'd like to make and this one is quite arguable from both sides. From my perspective, the way I saw the US elections gradually unfold, it seemed that implicit in Obama's claim for "change" was his racial identity as a qualifier for his ability to "change" the country [i.e. just because he's half black], insinuating that electing a European American would make "change" impossible or not quite as substantial in comparison to if one were to elect a mulatto. I think that most people that could read through the lines understood this message, what I'm trying to get at is how the media [yet again...those pesky buggers] tried to downplay his racial background in terms of how it affected his argument for "change" and then seemingly reverse their position once he was elected by focusing heavily on his presidency being a "historic" moment representing "change" in the American political system BECAUSE of his racial background! Have I lost anyone? Let me try to break it down.

From what I could remember of the pre-election campaigns, the media seemed highly reluctant to incorporate Obama's race into his message of providing "change" for the country ostensibly because they feared that by focusing on this issue that they would alienate potential voters from Obama - interesting to see how they placed such a high value and degree of importance on ensuring that nothing critical or potentially negative was said that would be inimical to Obama's campaign, McCain certainly didn't receive such preferential and positive treatment. Even though the media tried to downplay his racial background, it was very visible and highly evident that it definitely was on the back of their minds and that it played a significant role in encouraging, and possibly even in discouraging certain voters from voting for or against him. However, what is surprising and truly perplexing is that once Obama emerged victorious the media seemed to suddenly have no problem or even the slightest reservation at hailing his racial background as being central and fundamental to his claim for providing "change" for the US. I'm highlighting this 180 degree turn and complete reversal in order to emphasize just how deceptive and untrustworthy the large media networks are when it comes to seeking honest and genuine coverage of political developments. I try to rely as much as possible on independent and alternative sources for my news and encourage all of you to do the same. Of course try to cross reference to ensure accuracy.

Significance for America & The Economic Crisis

I suppose I'll start with the significance Obama's election has for the political and demographic future of the European American population which is already slated to become a minority in the USA by 2042 in addition to a majority of their youth being composed of minorities somewhere in the 2020's according to an article I have previously read. Personally, based on the precipitous decline of European Americans as a proportion of the population in the past few years, I believe that the minority status of European Americans will be achieved far sooner than 2042, perhaps as early as 2032-2035 in my opinion. America may in-fact become the first and if not, without a doubt they will be among the first European states to succeed in forcefully dispossessing their own native population and destroying their native culture, perhaps only Australia and Canada may beat the US to the punchline.

Despite the fact that statistically the majority of European Americans actually did not vote for Obama [if I'm not mistaken], it is disappointing nonetheless to consider just how many European Americans are enthusiastically supporting Obama to the point of obsession, particularly among European American youths. These unfortunate people don't quite realize how they are selling the future of their own people, their own culture, dispossessing themselves from their own land and quite likely promoting the disintegration of the United States itself by supporting a candidate who has made it his mission to "change" the United States; one can only assume the various connotations that "change" would have, however I do not think it would be too fanciful or far fetched to assume that this "change" that we are to experience over the next four years will include a change in the relationship between races, the relationship between the government and races [increasing the preponderance of minority representation, decreasing the present dominance of EA polticians] and consequently a colossal change in American culture and identity. All this I predict will probably be for the worse when it comes to European Americans because it will only exacerbate the vulnerable demographic and cultural position that European Americans are increasingly finding themselves in. Essentially, America will indeed gradually change into something totally alien to and potentially even antagonistic to the communal and ethnic interests of European Americans. It is quite possible that Obama's presidency [which I predict will extend for two terms!] will facilitate and speed up the decline of the European American population's influence in government and especially culture within America and what will be perceived as the American "identity" in the future; like I've said before, all of this will be re-socialized and reconstructed to the point where America and what it means to be "American" will hold little value or connection with what America originally was intended to be.

In order to be more comprehensive in my amateur analysis, I am going to consider the two likeliest possibilities:
1) Obama's presidency will herald the end of EA dominance in American culture and politics and gradually the EA community, being either incapable or unwilling to resist [it may already be too late] EA's will simply fade away in a united, muliracial, multicultural and anti-European America. This is what I discussed above. Pessimistic view, however I'd say that it is also more realistic and probable than the second possibility.
OR
2) Obama's presidency will initiate a revival in the racial consciousness of European Americans and a surge in their assertion of interests in both politics and culture given the perception that their way of life and existence will be under threat. This effect will set a precedent whereby the other major racial communities of the US begin forging their own racial consciousness and asserting their own culture and identity etc. Ultimately, all of these conflicting and non-compatible interests will set the stage for the disintegration of the United States as a coherent, single sovereign political unit much in the way that the USSR collapsed along ethnic lines into separate nation-states. Talk about poetic justice! This may or may not be violent, however this is by far the more optimistic and idealistic possibility in contrast to the sober assessment of the first.

Given the fact that I've already more or less covered the first possibility, I'll delve a little further into the second even though I should think that it is self explanatory. I hardly believe that Obama's presidency alone will initiate this revival of the EA racial identity, other factors will certainly be needed, particularly leaders and citizen movements that will seek to bring back European culture into the light and emphasize it as something equally as vibrant and unique as the numerous other cultures of America, something worth preserving. Ethnic nationalism has a habit of perpetuating itself once initiated, it is very difficult to stop and once one group begins asserting their identity, the only logical conclusion, or at least the most probable and expected one will be for other groups who now feel threatened to begin asserting themselves as described above. Whether through a series of political decisions or outcomes determined through violence [which will be very VERY dangerous given America's arsenal of weaponry, including nuclear], America will likely - if the above conditions are met - partition along racial lines. However let me make the important caveat that I'm not saying this will necessarily happen during Obama's actual presidency, the process may start within the next few years however it could possibly take a decade or two to finally germinate. It's interesting that back in 1999 or so a Russian professor had actually predicted that the USA would break up into sections mostly along cultural lines. You can read his article here. He believes that the USA will break up into five sections: the West will go to China or be influenced by China [I find this highly doubtful, I think that it is more likely given present demographic trends that this region will be highly influenced by Mexico or even choose to join Mexico except for the uppermost Western states which would join a European Midwest], Alaska will go to Russia [I think that he is suffering from nostalgia here and wishes Alaska would join Russia, I'm highly skeptical once again, if not independent, they might choose Canada], the Southern states will join Mexico or be influenced by Mexico [I find this highly probable except for the easternmost states which with their considerable black populations may choose to create their own Black Republic], Hawaii will go either to Japan or China [not quite sure, I'd say that they will either choose to be independent or be a part of Japan, but certainly not China], Atlantic America may join the EU [doubtful, I think the southeast would join with the other Black states to create a Black Republic while the northeast would join with the predominantly European states of the Midwest] and the last region that would separate would be the Midwest which the professor says would be under the influence or may even join Canada [doubtful, Canada never had much cultural influence on these regions anyways]. Consult the map at the bottom of the article to see what I am talking about.

I'll devote a relatively short spiel to how I think the economic crisis will relate to Obama's presidential term. The economy for all intents and purposes is pretty much circling the drain at the present moment and 2009 is widely slated to be the worst year that we can expect from this present recession/potential depression. Personally, I believe that with or without Obama, the global economy will gradually right itself without requiring excessive effort from Obama and his policies. Once again, we can analyze the future based on two likely trends:
1) Obama's economic policies will have a marked influence and impact upon reshaping and strengthening the world economy at which point he will be praised and without a doubt elected to a second term. *That is unless in four years the Democrats or the Republicans employ...wait for it..........a black woman as a presidential candidate at which point due to her gender and her racial background advantage she will likely usurp Obama* [major sarcasm there]
OR
2) Obama's economic policies will not ultimately have an effect upon improving the world economy, however in the four year grace period that Obama has and given the fact that 2009 is slated to be the worst that we shall experience, the economy will likely naturally improve by itself when the time comes for re-election and hence, despite not significantly improving the economy Obama will be once again re-elected because he will face re-election under better circumstances than he was initially elected-->the perception that America has improved under his tenure.

I think the above is relatively self-explanatory, if I were to sum it up, essentially I would be saying that naturally if Obama will be responsible for an economic revival then he will be re-elected, but even if he doesn't do anything that benefits the economy, the economy will gradually improve within four years and people will yet again believe that it was all due to their holy messiah at which point he will be promptly re-elected once again. In any case I predict that Obama will be around for eight years. What I'm curious to see is if the national media will have the temerity to actually criticize Obama considering his racial heritage. I won't be surprised if the media is reluctant to do so based on the lack of any real criticism during his campaign and the general fear the media has towards judging affluent people of African American ancestry. I mean, how can one say something negative or critical of Obama without being labeled a "racist" or "xenophobe"? Certainly I expect to be accused with such bland and meaningless political slurs simply for writing this post let alone a news media anchor. We shall see, perhaps the media will grow a pair and actually begin questioning Obama's qualifications and the effectiveness of his policies. I would be pleasantly surprised.

International Reception

This will be my last point that I will make as I feel that I have spent enough time on Obama for one night. Based on this article available here, the international community seems to be overwhelmingly positive and optimistic about Obama's upcoming presidency primarily focusing on his dealing with the financial crisis. I think that the optimism regarding his presidency has quite a lot to do with the relief in knowing that the era of Dubya Bush has come to an end. It seems that the state in which the world is in cannot possibly get any worse and that much of it is directly attributed to the policies invoked by Bush and/or his colleagues. As the title of the article indicates, the world has high hopes for Obama especially in the European states. Furthermore, the optimism felt by the international community is not entirely limited to contrasting Obama 's future with Bush's past but it also has to deal with the international perception that Obama is a figure humbled by America's current predicament and by his racial background [once again we see how significant and symbolic this is for everyone domestically and internationally] . This means that he will pursue a foreign policy that is significantly less unilateral focusing upon multilateral actions, negotiations and other more moderate and "softer" measures at pursuing American interests. This has its benefits and its disadvantages; benefit-wise America's international image will likely improve given their more humble stance HOWEVER and this is a HUGE "however" I think that this humility itself will precipitate the downfall of the US as the global hegemon faster than it would otherwise have occurred.

Countries will quickly realize how impotent America has become especially under the "soft" leadership of Obama who favours negotiations and rhetoric over actual coercive action. States such as China, Russia and even perhaps terrorist organizations themselves will likely strengthen their position relative to the US while the USA declines in proportional power because of their unwillingness to take an active and perhaps even "forceful" role in global politics. Taking an active and "forceful" role in global politics has its risks as well, look at Iraq, Afghanistan, US over-involvement around the world ala Bush, however with an emerging Chinese competitor for global hegemony along with the rise of other nations, the balance of power is changing and America cannot be relegated to the sidelines. I won't really be surprised if China actually takes advantage of this excellent opportunity to invade Taiwan under the belief that Obama will be reluctant in maintaining his defensive alliance with Taiwan. I can also see Pakistan destabilizing more, the potential for Afghanistan to degenerate further [although these two are weak predictions], an increased exertion of Russian influence in and around its borders [think Georgia; a resurgent Russia is very likely] and I'm sure many other similar events that will happen due to a perceived US weakness and unwillingness to aggressively pursue their national interest. Obama is often praised for bringing domestic change to the United States however, if things go as I have predicted, Obama may also be the initiator of a massive change in the balance of power as the world transforms from a largely unipolar into a multipolar world. Who knew he'd be such a "changer"?

I just thought I'd make all these predictions beforehand to test my cognitive analytical skills and so that no one can accuse me of cheating by writing this during his presidency as the events unfold.